When I first saw this story today on the Democrat's improving chances for capturing the Senate, I gave my usual yawn. The Democrats are just so much better at losing than winning, I really have a hard time believing any good news anymore. Then I read this, and shouted "holy fuck!" at my computer:
The number of Republican-held seats with competitive Democratic challengers has expanded to include Virginia and Tennessee, where Democrat Harold Ford Jr. now holds a 5-percentage-point lead over Republican Bob Corker among likely voters.
If an African-American is leading in a statewide Senate race in the Old Confederate state of Tennessee, the Democrats can win the Senate. It doesn't mean Harold Ford is going to win (although I hope he does). It doesn't mean the South is changing (sadly, I don't know if it ever truly will). It does mean that fighting on their turf is a winning strategy, and it does mean that Howard Dean is right on his 50-state strategy. If you force the Republicans to defend what they take for granted, it makes the "toss-up" regions that much more likely to go Democratic. It's just that simple.
The same article has other good news for the Dems:
In Missouri, GOP Sen. Jim Talent narrowly trails Democrat Claire McCaskill, and in Rhode Island, Sen. Lincoln Chafee faces a double-digit deficit against Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse. The surveys, taken Sept. 27 to Oct. 1, have error margins of +/—5 percentage points for the likely-voter samples.
In Maryland, another Democratic seat targeted by the GOP, Ben Cardin leads Republican Michael Steele by a wide 15 points.
In Virginia, GOP Sen. George Allen, hit by allegations of racism, has a narrow three-point lead over Democrat James Webb.
Democrats also are hopeful of ousting GOP incumbents in Ohio, Montana and Pennsylvania. Fewer than half of the 33 Senate seats on the ballot are considered competitive.
In the new polls, voters in all six states combined who said they would vote largely out of party loyalty supported Democrats by 2-1 — a sign that Democratic partisans are more energized than Republican ones.
