This entry was posted on 10/31/2006 10:22 AM and is filed under Election 2006, All Posts.
Well, just when I go poo-pooing our chances of capturing the Senate, and particularly Jim Webb's attempt to take out amiable racist George Allen, Mr. Webb snags his first polling lead of the campaign:
Among likely voters surveyed, 50 percent favored Webb, a former Republican who served as Navy secretary in the Reagan administration, while 46 percent favored Allen, and 4 percent were undecided.
A statewide poll conducted Oct. 23 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. also reflected a close race, though Allen led then with 47 percent to 43 percent for. Allen's advantage was equal to the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
In my willfully naive view, this represents a clear swing in Webb's favor since October 23. But that's just my willfully naive, dangerously optimistic view. Remember, to win the Senate, the Democrats have to take two out of three of Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri. This, in addition to holding New Jersey, and meeting the consensus prediction that they take Rhode Island, Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Basically, without a Webb win, the Dems likely fall short of the Senate.
