TODAY'S LIES


Because the truth is...relative.

Nervous As Hell

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This entry was posted on 11/6/2006 4:49 PM and is filed under Election 2006, All Posts.

I can't help but vent my increasing anxiety about tomorrow's elections. 

The sinking, nervous feeling in my gut, I hate to say, reminds me of the feeling I had in both 2000, and 2004, where all the cards seemed to be in our favor, but we had no way of knowing how things would end up, and no clue of understanding once they ended up the way they did.

The news of
Saddam Hussein's death sentence hurts the Democrats.  It's stupid that it does.  It's a meaningless event that has nothing to do with Americans' national security interests, and despite denials to the country, was clearly staged to reap from it the greatest electoral benefit.  It will bring no Democrats over to the GOP, and very, very few independents. 

Yet it could energize the Republican base.  It could energize it just enough so that so many of those wonderful Democratic-leaning Congressional races being fought in normally Republican-safe districts suddenly turn Republican-leaning. 

Remember, these 20+, 30+ Democratic pickup stats we've all been hearing about are grounded on Republican voters staying home out of disgust with the failures of the GOP.  If these voters see a death-sentenced Saddam as something inspiring, they could quickly come back home to the GOP.  If these people end up voting anywhere near the way they did in 2002 or 2004, the Democrats will not take the Senate, and likely not even the House.

Throw in the 
John Kerry stupidity.  Throw in the New Jersey gay marriage ruling.  Throw in the "Hang Him High" Saddam media coverage, and Election Night could be a big surprise for all of us Dems, who have been fed a steady diet of good political news the last several months.

That said, there is still much good news heading into tomorrow.

—In Virginia, Democrat Jim Webb is leading Republican George Allen by 
8 points in the latest SurveyUSA poll.  Bullshit, you say?  You're correct!  That poll's a joke!  However, note the Mason-Dixon poll taken in the same period, showing Webb up by 1.  That he is doing that well after running an invisible campaign for the last year tells us a lot about the emotional trend undercutting the GOP heading into tomorrow's election.

—In Tennessee, Democrat Harold Ford has closed a 10 to 12 deficit reported by
Zogby and Mason-Dixon, respectively, just a few days ago, to a 3 to 4 point deficit reported by Gallup and Rasmussen today, in his race against Republican Bob Corker.  That, to me at least, shows a clear trend in Ford's favor over the last two days.  Bet on the tireless, wily campaigner Ford to get the urban African-American base out in droves on Tuesday, while winning over just enough white Democrats and Independents, to pull off the political upset of the decade.

—Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse is going to
wipe the floor with Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island.  The reverse effect: it's so impossible for Chafee to win at this point, if you see him pull it out in the early returns, just go to bed.  There's nothing more to stay up for, except shocking, debilitating heartbreak, because if Chafee can win in this environment, the Republicans will easily hold both houses of Congress.  Chafee has to, and will, lose big tomorrow night.

—Same with Democrat Sherrod Brown, who will
kick the teeth out of that puny fake Republican, Sen. Mike DeWine of Ohio.

—Same with Democrat Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, who will hand Democrats their most prized trophy, the worst of the worst, the King Kong of Republican right-wing morons: Sen. Rick Santorum.  It's
not even going to be close.  Now Rick can start the day job he's wanted all along: Ayatollah.  All he has to do is move to Iraq.

As for Montana, New Jersey, and Missouri—who the hell knows?  Montana and Missouri are the deadest of dead heats, and I simply can't make a prediction.  Jersey?  The Democratic tenor of the state blunts most—most of the corruption hit that Sen. Bob Menendez has taken from Tom Kean.  But Menendez' support seems wafer thin, as does Kean's.  We'll see tomorrow, folks!

I'll be blogging all night long, as people need a "whoop whoop!", or a shoulder to cry on.  Just check in with Today's Lies, whatever mood you're in.

 

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Comments

    • 11/7/2006 11:38 AM MrEd wrote:
      Here's another thing that worries me - the weather. Bad rain in IN, KY, TN and VA, among others.
      Reply to this
    • 11/7/2006 12:36 PM Sarah wrote:
      Thanks for this run down. I have that all too familiar sinking feeling too. It's almost as if when the media paints a picture of hope for the Dems, you know we're doomed.
      Reply to this
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