This weekend serves as the kickoff point for a month-long marathon of major contests. Following is the next month's primary and caucus schedule, the conventional wisdom as to which candidate will likely walk away with what, and TL's take on the CW.
Saturday, February 9 (today)
Louisiana Primary Delegates: 56
CW: Obama has the edge, due to a heavily black population—one third of the Obama coalition.
TL: Hasn't a large portion of that population moved to other parts of the country, due to Hurricane Katrina? And hasn't that migration left behind a large, working-class, white population perhaps more inclined towards Hillary? Also, this is a closed primary, not a caucus. Caucuses are where Sen. Obama has tended to fare better than primaries. And closed means no independents or disaffected Republicans crossing the aisle, another third of the Obama coalition.
Nebraska Caucuses Delegates: 24
CW: Obama should win going away. He has the endorsement of the state's popular Sen. Ben Nelson, and has done quite well in rural, conservative, lily-white states like this one (see Utah, North Dakota, Alaska and Idaho). While this is technically a closed caucus, anyone can arrive at the caucus site and register as a Democrat on the spot—another boon to Obama.
TL: Ditto.
Washington State Caucuses Delegates: 78
CW: Washington State's large demographic of young, white, college-educated Democrats—the final third of the Obama coalition—should give Obama the win. It doesn't hurt that this is an open caucus, where a Republican or independent can vote by merely saying "Democrat". Oh, and Washington State's Gov. Chris Gregoire endorsed Obama yesterday.
TL: This is also a state that has had no problem electing its current slate of a Democratic female governor, and two Democratic female U.S. Senators. All but Gov. Gregoire have endorsed Hillary. This could prove a lot closer than the MSM is predicting.
Sunday, February 10
Maine Caucuses Delegates: 24
CW: For reasons as yet unexplained, Obama will win the Maine Caucuses.
TL: Maine is a heavily white ethnic, working class state—Clinton's core constituency. The Democratic political leadership, including Maine's governor, are behind Hillary. For a more thorough analysis, check out Robert KC Johnson's must-read column on the subject. I am putting this one in Hillary's column.
Tuesday, February 12
Virginia Primary Delegates: 101
CW: Polls show Obama ahead anywhere from 15 to 20 points consistently. Analysts point to the "blueing" of this red state's northeastern corner by white, college educated, upper-income liberals, leading to the recent Democratic victories of Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb. As stated earlier, this is a key Obama constituency. Gov. Kaine also endorsed Obama early, and has enthusiastically campaigned for him around the country. Virginia was the first state to elect a black governor, Douglas Wilder. It's also an open primary, allowing again for the crossover of independents/Republicans. So an Obama victory seems pretty likely.
TL: I was all set to agree with the CW until I read this dissenting piece by the New Republic's Josh Patashnik. He points out that despite the Obama strength in the Washington suburbs, the rest of the state demographically trends closer to Tennessee, a state he lost by 13 points. He also notes that Obama tends to do well in states with either very large black populations, or hardly any at all. Virginia is right in-between.
All said, my bet is still on Obama, though with a much tighter margin than the polls suggest.
Maryland Primary Delegates: 99
CW: Due to heavily African-American Baltimore, Obama will win in a walk. The latest Rasmussen poll has him winning by a staggering 26 points. Those are South Carolina numbers.
TL: Ditto.
Washington, D.C. Delegates: 37
CW: See Maryland.
TL: See above.
Tuesday, February 19
Wisconsin Primary Delegates: 92
CW: Wisconsin has a long history of anti-establishment progressivism, from Robert La Follette to Russ Feingold. Obama has done well in the upper Midwest, from Iowa to Minnesota. Therefore, he should win Wisconsin.
TL: I haven't seen a single Wisconsin poll that shows anyone other than Hillary Clinton winning this state by 8-10 points. Unless the polls are all wrong, or I've missed better ones, this should be a win for the NY senator.
Hawaii Caucuses Delegates: 29
CW: It's Obama's home state. It's a caucus. Enough said.
TL: Ditto.
Tuesday, March 4
Ohio Primary Delegates: 161
CW: Popular Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has endorsed Sen. Clinton. Ohio's demographic of white ethnic, working class Democrats bodes very well for Hillary. Almost all of the latest polls show her leading by 20 points or more. It's pretty clear, isn't it?
TL: Another reason Ohio pisses me off...
Rhode Island Primary Delegates: 32
CW: Rhode Island is so small, I can't even find any CW for the CW.
TL: Alright, fine, I'll just create some CW right here on the spot. Rhode Island should trend like Connecticut. A narrow Obama victory.
Vermont Primary Delegates: 23
CW: What little polling has been done in Howard Dean's old stomping ground shows Hillary way ahead.
TL: For what it's worth, I believe there could not have been a 2008 Barack Obama movement without the precursor of the 2004 Howard Dean movement. Perhaps progressive Vermonters will see the similarities, and appreciate Obama's clear anti-war stance. I think this is one where Barack can close in the final days.
Texas Primary Delegates: 228
CW: The heavy Latino tilt of Texan Democrats bodes very well for Hillary's chances. Like Ohio, this is an end of the month firewall for Hillary after a long string of smaller losses.
TL: Hillary will win Texas.
As we get closer to the later contests in this list, I expect Barack to close the gaps in most if not all of the states Hillary is leading in. That is because the evidence clearly shows that the more time he has to focus on an individual state, the better he does. If things break down the way I've described, in one month, the Democratic nomination...will still be a total fucking deadlock. Ugh.
2/9/2008 8:20 PM
Princess Leia wrote:
Thanks for this - I've been wanting a good analysis of what's coming up. Any news on LA or WA today? voter turnout, etc.? Reply to this
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