This entry was posted on 2/10/2008 11:05 PM and is filed under 2008 Election, All Posts.
Barack Obama won a stunning four-state sweep over the weekend, capturing Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Maine. While the first three contests were more or less predicted to go to Obama, today's caucuses in Maine demographically trended closer to Hillary's voting base of working-class, older white voters, and thus should be considered an upset.
That said, it bears pointing out that the Obama campaign has done a remarkably good job of winning elections, and a remarkably bad job of managing expectations. It has been thoroughly aided in this, ironically, by a generally pro-Obama media, which palpably dislikes Clinton, and wants Barack to have sewn this thing up five minutes ago.
After Obama stunned the political world by defeating the Clinton machine in Iowa—the first-in-the-nation contest that Hillary should have won going away—the media wove a narrative that her campaign was dead, and that the nomination was already sealed up by Barack. His people did nothing to disabuse either the media or the public of this notion. And then she won New Hampshire, and was declared "back from the dead".
The candidates then headed into Nevada, where Hillary's strong Latino support and early polling lead should have made it clear that she was most likely to win there. Despite this environment, the endorsement of the State Culinary Worker's union got the media to push the notion that these union members would somehow sway the election to Obama. Obama lost, and Hillary was pronounced the frontrunner once again.
Heading into South Carolina, the MSM announced that a victory by Obama there was simply not going to be enough. He would have to win basically every single black person in the state, and at least 20% of the white vote, or they would count it as a loss. When he exceeded even their standard for a "victory"—winning overall 55-27%, with 23% of the white vote, they were at least kind enough to at least give him the check mark.
South Carolina was, yet again, another state that Clinton should have won. The fact that she and her husband managed to somehow squander sixteen years of intense devotion from African-American voters should have been the story, not that Obama wasn't getting enough votes from whites.
Heading into Super Tuesday, every poll showed that Clinton was going to win New York, New Jersey, and California—save one poll on the Monday prior, which showed Obama winning California by one point. Clearly, the fact that the first two of these contests were regional Clinton wins just like Obama's winning his home state of Illinois should have been noted by the media. The fact that California's Democratic electorate was heavily Latino also should have made it clear that he was likely not going to win there.
Regardless, because Obama had such momentum out of South Carolina, and the media wanted a decisive blow to Hillary on Super Tuesday, the one single poll that showed him one point ahead in Cali suddenly transformed this Clinton-friendly day into yet another must-win for Barack. In truth, the best Barack could have possibly hoped for would be to merely survive the Clinton onslaught. By any estimate, in fact, he at least fought Clinton to a draw, and from many viewpoints, actually defeated Clinton on Super Tuesday by capturing more states, more delegates, and far more states than the NY Senator will ever be able to make competitive in a general election.
The Clinton camp even was able to spin Barack's victories in Idaho, North Dakota, Utah, etc., as evidence a) of his closet conservativism, and/or b) that his losses in NY and CA meant that in a general election, this urban minority progressive would lose these liberal bastions also. This was stated with little to no pushback from the Obama campaign.
We then arrived at this weekend, where once again, a majority of Obama victories would not be enough—he was required to sweep each of the four contests for the media to consider this a valid victory. This, despite a large Clinton cohort in Washington State, a huge exodus of African-Americans from Louisiana, and a large white ethnic, working class Democratic base in Maine. Once again, Obama managed to pull it off. Once again, the media shrugged. Again, not because they want him to lose, but because they want him to win.
Now we approach another Tuesday with a package of contests: Maryland, District of Columbia, and Virginia. Obama is expected to win all three. Due to their heavily African-American populations, this makes sense for the first two states. However, Virginia is another matter. As I've stated in earlier posts, the Old Dominion demographically tracks closer to Tennessee rather than, say South Carolina. Obama lost TN by thirteen points. Nonetheless, if Hillary somehow manages to win Virginia, a state that she by all rights should win, it will be pronounced a huge upset, "comeback kid", "found her voice", etc., etc.
At least the polls, for once, are matching Barack's expectations. But it would be nice if his campaign wouldn't just sit there silently while the media explains to the world that he should do no less than walk on water.
2/11/2008 12:00 PM
znufrii wrote:
It becomes even harder when you have none other than the emminent neocon Bill Kristol positively salivating over your expected victory because it would mean "the downfall of the house of Clinton."
