This entry was posted on 2/12/2008 11:29 PM and is filed under 2008 Election, All Posts.
DC: 76-24
Virginia: 64-35
Maryland: 60-37
These numbers are better than victories for Obama. These numbers matter in that they keep Clinton below 40% in each contest. By doing that, Barack likely broke through the proportional delegate threshold across the board. Had she scored even just slightly higher, she would have split the delegates with him in most districts evenly. Because the win is so lopsided, he will take home a larger share, and pull ahead of her in the overall delegate count to date.
The flip-side is also true, of course, for the upcoming Hillary-leaning states. Obama does not need to win Ohio, Texas, or Pennsylvania (though it certainly wouldn't hurt). He merely needs to stay above 40% in as many districts as he possibly can, in order to split the delegate count evenly with her, despite her having won the state percentage-wise.
After all, the "Ohio/Texas/PA Hillary Firewall" isn't predicated on her tying him in these big states—it depends on her trouncing him. Which is most likely: that her leads in these big states are going to grow, stay the same, or shrink? Judging by which candidate has the momentum heading into them, the ad money, the better organization, and the most favorable press, that isn't a hard question to answer.
Here is a very thorough, interesting, and optimistic analysis of how delegates are likely to be proportioned in Texas. It shows Obama actually winning the state's slate.
