Tomorrow we have primaries in Ohio and Texas, as well as Rhode Island and Vermont. The MSM, most polls, and the conventional wisdom predict an Obama sweep of Vermont, Clinton holding onto Rhode Island, Obama eking by in Texas, and Clinton taking a close-but-still decisive win in Ohio. This likely divided result does not bode well for Obama's campaign, or, more importantly, the Democratic Party. But more on that in a minute.
Suppose things go another way, and the senator from Illinois has a great day tomorrow, winning not just Texas and Vermont, but the great blue-collar prize Ohio. Oh, what the hell, Rhode Island would be nice, too. If Obama can scrape by with wins in both of the big states tomorrow, I believe the nomination fight could be over. The media will pile on Clinton to drop out, superdelegates will start to shift en masse to Barack, and divisions within her campaign may stretch from existing cracks to Lois Lane devouring fault lines.
I don't believe Senator Obama has to win both of the big states by big margins for this scenario to come to fruition. If he wins both Ohio and Texas at all, I believe it's over for Clinton, and that she'll likely be out of the race by the end of the week.
Let's countenance the opposite, and say that Clinton wins everything tomorrow except for Vermont (she's not going to win Vermont even under the best of circumstances). Flush with $35 million in donations from last month, this campaign is going to claim the following: 1) she has regained the momentum; 2) she is the new frontrunner; 3) she is the new frontrunner despite being behind in delegates, because she has won BIG STATES, and Obama has apparently won little wimpy ones.
This is a recurring theme for the Clinton campaign, one they have been pushing ever since Super Tuesday, with increasing urgency after having lost the last eleven straight contests. Obama only wins small, reddish states like Idaho, Nebraska, and Alaska; Clinton wins big, true blue states like California, New York, and New Jersey. Never mind that Obama has also won large, densely populated states like Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington—these little pissers named Delaware, North Dakota, Maine, and Hawaii have clearly spoiled the barrel.
So a trifecta tomorrow for Clinton, despite the delegate math still clearly against her even with these wins, would guarantee that the NY senator carries on to Pennsylvania, where Ed Rendell waits with open arms, racist musings, and promising poll numbers.
Back to my opening paragraph: an Ohio/Texas split is the most likely scenario. It is the one that guarantees that while all the odds and indicators are stacked against Clinton, the moral victory of taking Ohio will prove too much for her to drop out. So while the delegate count will still be stacked against her, she will likely assume that if she can win Ohio, she can win the next, demographically-similar BIG STATE: Pennsylvania. When does that contest take place? On Tuesday, April 22: exactly seven weeks from tomorrow's supposedly "decisive" primary elections.
That's seven more weeks of Clinton being behind in pledged delegates, and losing super delegates, but still retaining some level of self-appointed viability. Seven weeks of continued character assassination of Barack Obama. Seven weeks of Clinton waving the bloody shirt of Florida and Michigan.
Seven weeks of John McCain and a united GOP campaigning against the Democrats, while the Democrats campaign with increasingly bitter, trench warfare tactics against each other.
So, no, I'm not really looking forward to tomorrow. I seriously doubt the outcome will be decisive in any way. And that's a bad thing for Obama, the Democratic Party, and the country's prospects of digging out of this hole anytime soon.
Don't miss the chance. You have best candidate from many years. I thought that Hilary is good enough... but it was before Obama.
And I hope that nobody shoot him like it was with JFK
,,I have been amazed to see an unknown candidate emerge as the candidate of hope. His intelligence, people skills and ability to manage campaign stress with dignity and poise cross all identified descriptive borders. It is time for a man or woman of any race, color or creed to serve in the highest office in this nation, but it doesn't have to be the first woman or African American applying for the job....'' Bonnie L. Dodge
