This entry was posted on 4/21/2008 11:47 PM and is filed under 2008 Election, All Posts.
Even briefer than my last post on the subject, I think this Real Clear Politics analysis nails how to analyze tomorrow night's results.
—Obama wins: Race is totally over.
—Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over.
—Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down.
—Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media.
—Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate "winner". In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee.
