It's been awfully hard not getting expectations up about tomorrow's Democratic primary in Pennsylvania.
After all, Barack Obama appears to have closed down a 20+ point Clinton lead from a few weeks ago, to what appears to be an average deficit of just 5-6 points. He's got the momentum, he's outspending Hillary 3-1 across the state, and new Democratic registration supports him 60-40%. That's right—of the 217,000 new Democratic registrants since January 2008, 62% are Obama supporters.
Top that with a party-switching of 178,000 Pennsylvanians from Republican to Democratic, and you have the makings of a potential Obama tsunami in the last stretch of this PA campaign.
If Obama could win Pennsylvania tomorrow—even by one-tenth of one measly point—the primary would be over. Even Hillary would realize that it was time for her to drop out. That tantalizing possibility is getting myself, and all kinds of other "Obamabots" in a tizzy over the prospect of a knockout blow tomorrow. Hell, The American Prospect even has a piece up today titled "Why Obama Will Win Pennsylvania". Read it! It's great political porn!
However, I'm far more inclined to agree with the Daily Kos—a pro-Obama site—on his chances tomorrow.
Once again we see Obamanation getting their expectations out of whack. Talk about a narrow, 3-7 point margin of victory for Clinton is starting to take hold as the consensus for tomorrow.
This is bunk. The numbers are clear. Just as they were in Nevada. Just as they were in Texas and Ohio.
Obama will not break 45% on Tuesday. He may not break 43%.
Obama has touched 45% twice in 24 poll results.
45 is his CEILING.
By contrast, Clinton is closer to 50% than Obama is to 45%.
Best case scenario for Obama is 54-46. Worst case scenario is 58-42. Split the difference and call it 56-44. And, quite frankly, that's optimistic given the media's attempts to Swiftboat Obama every single day for the past two weeks.
The media will call this one within 30 minutes of polls closing.
Obama was already surging big-time in Pennsylvania before Bittergate hit last week. While he hasn't plummeted in any way since then, he has been halted at around a 45% ceiling—and he does not appear capable of cracking that in PA.
Miracles happen. Last-minute victories happen. Obama has deep pockets in Philadelphia that appear capable of wildly besting turnout expectations. He has focused almost 100% of his campaigning on Hillary's turf—white, rural, gun-toting areas that should be hers going away. That should depress some of her turnout. His massive ad war should depress some of her turnout. Her massive negatives should definitely depress some of her turnout.
That said, I would encourage everyone to prepare themselves for an Ohio-size victory for Hillary. This campaign is very likely going to continue.
