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AM Thoughts: Clinton's Dilemma

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This entry was posted on 5/7/2008 9:08 AM and is filed under 2008 Election,All Posts.


To quote Sen. Barack Obama, the day after he lost New Hampshire exactly four months ago, these words sum up my feelings today:

"My voice is a little hoarse.  My eyes are a little bleary.  My back is sore.  But my spirit is strong!"


We had a great night, folks.  The lack of sleep only adds to the giddiness!

I recall writing this at the top of my Live-Blogging entry from yesterday evening, just after 7pm:

HuffPo claims exit polling shows Obama up by 12% in N.C., up by 1% in Indiana.  Let's just remember—that's probably crap.


Final results for yesterdays primaries:

North Carolina
Obama: 56
Clinton: 42

Indiana
Clinton: 51
Obama: 49

Whoops.  Being that it got each margin within 2-3 points, I think the exit polling may have called the election closer than any of the mainstream polls leading up to these contests.  I don't believe that's happened in a major election since 2000.

What is Hillary facing today?  No donor base, for one: she's been revealed to have quietly donated $6.4 million to her campaign over the last month.  The donations that were trickling in will dry up even faster now. 

She's also facing the severe likelihood of superdelegates pouring over to Obama for the remainder of this week and into the next, and a pundit class that has almost universally declared the race over.  It is now a mathematical impossibility that she can overtake Obama in pledged delegates.  Same goes for the popular vote. 

She lost the black vote by an even greater margin than ever before, by some 93%.  The increased black voter participation likely is a result of the media and the Clinton camp overplaying their hand with the Jeremiah Wright scandal, causing even deeper alienation between Hillary and the black community.  There is no way on earth she could win a general election without them.  After Rev. Wright and North Carolina, if she was able somehow to still capture the nomination, she would have to find a way to win it without them.  That historic relationship is permanently breached at the national level.

So is it over for Hill?  You tell me.  I'm a devout skeptic.

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    • 5/7/2008 1:48 PM Sarah wrote:

      I just don't get it.  I really don't.  After Tim Russert's statement last night, the cancelling of the morning talk shows and public appearances by the Clinton campaign, McGovern's switch and all the other media outlets calling it quits for Hillary I really thought I'd wake up this morning and hear that she had called a big press conference for this afternoon to concede.  Instead, every soundbyte coming from her campaign says she's in it till the convention.  Is she delusional?  Or is she just hoping for a really big scandal for Obama in the next couple of weeks?  Hmmm...something we don't know?  The pundits better keep telling America the truth about the statistical undeniability of Barack being the nominee.  They've been perpetuating the myth of a close race for far too long and it's disgraceful.  Clinton needs to do the right thing and start uniting the party around our candidate - Barack Obama.
      Reply to this
      1. 5/7/2008 2:17 PM Will wrote:

        Even worse, over at Huffington Post Lawrence O'Donnell bragged about talking to a senior Clinton advisor who said "we'll know the nominee by June 15". 

        http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/hillary-will-drop-out-by_b_100625.html

        Like they were really throwing us a bone.  June 15?!  Over a month away?  Well, we better damn know the nominee by then, there aren't even any more primaries or caucuses after June 3!  And the Clintons didn't even say "she's dropping out on June 15", though O'Donnell interpreted it that way.  Nope, they just said we'll know the nominee.

        Frankly, they're probably just doing this for fundraising's sake.  Got a lot of debt to pay off.  And yes, holding out the vain hope of another scandal to blow up.
        Reply to this
    • 5/7/2008 10:29 PM Evan Z wrote:
      It is over for Hillary Clinton. I believe she will concede before the end of the week. To go on any longer would be foolish and completely destuctive to the party she claims to want to represent. Ego will only get you so far. Her time is up.
      Reply to this
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