The next major event will come Sunday in Puerto Rico, where the Clinton forces have long been banking on a lopsided win—and heavy turnout, as is the island’s tradition when it comes to commonwealth politics.  Why does this matter so much to them? Because of the national popular vote.  A giant winning margin amid astronomical turnout—some U.S. forecasters have suggested a million ballots might be cast—could theoretically give Clinton the overall popular-vote edge without having to resort to the above-described Michigan-chicanery.

But Puerto Rico now seems poised to dash those hopes.  First came word that the number of polling sites on the island had been slashed, with elections officials predicting low turnout. Voter interest in Puerto Rico, it turns out, isn’t as intense when it comes to mainland politics.  Now a new poll shows Clinton ahead by 13 points.  This would be a big deal in Puerto Rico, where elections are almost always tight, but it’s not nearly the full-on rout that Clinton would need to move the overall popular-vote numbers in her favor.  Even a 20-point Clinton win in Puerto Rico won’t come close to getting the job done.