If you haven't yet picked up on the political web sensation that is Nate Silver's 538.com, I highly recommend it become part of your daily fix. Coming out of nowhere, Silver has become this election's best analyst of national and state polling data.
538 also provides some of the best non-polling political commentary out there. Here is his team's hilarious, on-the-ground take on McCain vs. Obama's organizing work in Missouri—a conservative state Sen. McCain should be winning handily, but CNN now has trailing the Illinois senator by 1 point. This story offers some reasons why:
Obama has 40 offices now open in Missouri, and Justin Hamilton, Obama’s Press Secretary for Missouri, told us that while he couldn’t confirm below or above the published reports of 150 organizers (it didn’t come from the campaign), the campaign is only adding to its ground force. Organizers have now recruited 2500 neighborhood team leaders statewide, folks who do the far more effective work than any 30-second ad or yard signs, actual face-to-face contact and persuasion of their neighbors.
Let’s be clear. We've observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn't like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.
Only for the first time the other day did we see a McCain organizer make a single phone call. So we've now seen that once. The McCain organizers seem to operate as maître Ds. Let me escort you to your phone, sir. Pick any one of this sea of empty chairs. I'll be sitting over here if you need any assistance.
You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.
Read the whole thing for a good laugh, and some strong encouragement that Obama could possibly pick up a long-shot win in Missouri, and other red states from 2000 and 2004. While you're at the site, check out Nate's many electoral map analyses and polling models. They're fascinating, and they all show wonderful trends for the Obama campaign.
